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Being in the Floor of a Great Idea in Trading
Of all the things that seduce the average investor, concept investing is the worst. Yes, I know Peter Lynch says that you have a better chance than he does of finding the next Xerox or Wal-Mart.That may be true, but it is also true that Peter has a much better chance of benefiting from the next Xerox or Wal-Mart. Let's say you find a company, commodity, option, etc., that doubles your investment in a short time. If you are the typical investor, you will do one of two things. You will sell your entire position and brag about the profits at the country club. Or you will put most of your life savings in it. Inevitably, your next Xerox has a small fall in price. Because you've invested most of your money at higher prices, this fall causes you to lose money, panic, and sell just before the next big . You aren't really going to cash in on the next fall. A Peter Lynch will start tracking your hot company as soon as it becomes public. He may miss the initial surge, but his capital and trading techniques will take advantage of the rest of the move. Or take the "gold bugs." They were absolutely right in condemning paper money and predicting higher precious metal prices in the 1970s. But how many actually took advantage of the big moves? How many threw away what little profits they made by buying high-priced metals in the early 1980s? It's been my experience that only one gold bug in a hundred has made a better than average return over the last twenty years. Creativity or intelligence has no more to do with successful trading than it does with a successful business. Both need sufficient capital, a well-thought-out plan of operation, and, most of all, the humility to copy those who were successful before you. True, the greatest traders, like the greatest businessmen, also have creativity and intelligence to go along with elementary trading techniques. But like their business counterparts, often they had to unlearn all they knew before they could really start to succeed. Only when market humiliations forced them to follow the "simple" laws of investing could they begin to use their great talents in the markets. That's why the ranks of great traders are filled with many college dropouts and very few Ph.D.'s. That's why, like most new businesses, most new investors fail. Their investments fail to keep up with market averages or even inflation. Their returns never justify their opportunity costs in time and treasure. Sadly, the record of new investors is even more dismal than new businesses.
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